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Journal of Interpersonal Violence, Vol. 21, No. 5, 612-633 (2006)
DOI: 10.1177/0886260506286876

Cross-Validation of the Risk Matrix 2000 Sexual and Violent Scales

Leam A. Craig

Forensic Psychology Practice Ltd. & Centre for Forensic and Family Psychology, University of Birmingham, UK

Anthony Beech

Kevin D. Browne

Centre for Forensic and Family Psychology, University of Birmingham, UK

The predictive accuracy of the newly developed actuarial risk measures Risk Matrix 2000 Sexual/Violence (RMS, RMV) were cross validated and compared with two risk assessment measures (SVR-20 and Static-99) in a sample of sexual (n= 85) and nonsex violent (n= 46) offenders. The sexual offense reconviction rate for the sex offender group was 18% at 10 years follow-up, compared with 2% for the violent offenders. Survival analyses revealed the violent offenders were reconvicted at twice the rate compared to sexual offenders. The RMV significantly predicted violent recidivism in the sex and combined sex/violent offender groups. Although the RMS obtained marginal accuracy in predicting sexual reconviction in the sex offender group, none of the scales significantly predicted sexual reconviction. An item analysis revealed four factors not included in the risk scales that were significantly correlated with sexual and violent reconviction. Combining these factors with Static-99, RMV, and RMS increased the accuracy in predicting sexual reconviction.

Key Words: sexual and violent offenders • actuarial and clinically-guided risk assessment • receiver operating characteristic - area under the curve


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