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Journal of Interpersonal Violence
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Risk Assessment in Offenders With Mental Disorders

Relative Efficacy of Personal Demographic, Criminal History, and Clinical Variables

Helen K. Phillips

Cardiff University & South Wales Forensic Psychiatric Service, PhillipsHK1{at}cardiff.ac.uk

Nicola S. Gray

Cardiff University & South Wales Forensic Psychiatric Service

Sophie I. MacCulloch

Cardiff University

John Taylor

Kneesworth House Hospital

Simon C. Moore

University of Wales College of Medicine

Phil Huckle

Llanarth Court Hospital

Malcolm J. MacCulloch

Cardiff University, South Wales Forensic Psychiatric Service, University of Wales College of Medicine

Following the meta-analysis by Bonta, Law, and Hanson, (1998) this study examined the ability of personal demographic, criminal history, and clinical variables to predict reoffending in offenders in the United Kingdom who had mental disorders. The efficacy of each variable in predicting rate of general reoffending and violent reoffending was investigated. Age on admission, number of days hospitalized, and number of previous offenses were the most effective variables in predicting re-offending, with number of previous offenses being the strongest predictor. Clinical diagnosis was not predictive of reoffending when the variance attributable to these other predictors was controlled for. None of the variables were able to discriminate between general offenders and violent offenders indicating that the same variables predict both types of reoffending. The results showed that reconviction in offenders with mental disorders can be predicted using the same criminogenic variables that are predictive in offenders without mental disorders.

Key Words: risk assessment • mentally disordered offenders • recidivism

Journal of Interpersonal Violence, Vol. 20, No. 7, 833-847 (2005)
DOI: 10.1177/0886260504272898
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